University of Melbourne geologist Bernie Joyce said the threat of volcanic eruption in Victoria, South Australia and Queensland should be given more attention by emergency management authorities.
"The geological record shows that new volcanoes in these areas have erupted perhaps every 2,000 years in the past 40,000 years — and given there has not been a major eruption there for the past 5,000 years, a significant eruption seems well overdue," he said.
Melbourne in the firing line
A volcanic eruption in Victoria's Western Uplands could potentially see lava flows and ash falls impacting on Melbourne, Joyce told Cosmos Online.
"There is also similar volcano risk present in various provinces in Far North Queensland, stretching from south-west of Townsville to near Cairns and up to Cooktown in the Far North.
"There are more than 380 volcanoes in total across this part of Queensland," said Joyce, who will receive the Selwyn Medal for significant contributions in the Earth Sciences tomorrow at the Geological Society of Australia's annual Selwyn Symposium.
Joyce said that research at the University of Melbourne had given new dates to some of the volcanic deposits in Victoria. These findings pointed to 20 or so young volcanoes in a cluster near the Victoria border and there could be a new eruption in this area, he said.
Worst-case scenario
"While any future volcanoes may discharge only small amounts of lava and ash, the real possibility remains that there could be a significant eruption — and it makes sense that the population centres potentially affected should be well-prepared for that worst-case scenario," he said.
"To this end, eruption response plans should be developed and publicised by the emergency management authorities."
In New Zealand, there is a greater focus on the need to educate the public about volcano risk, Joyce said. Auckland, New Zealand's largest city, sits on an active hot spot, while nearby plate tectonics drives active volcanoes such as Mt Ruapehu
Australian volcanism stems from a different cause which may be related to buckling of the rocks as Australia inches its way towards North America, said Joyce. This buckling could allow packets of magma to force their way up through the crust.
Geologist and Curator of the Museum of Victoria, Bill Birch, who has studied the volcanic rocks of Victoria, said that while the risk was "worth noting", it "wasn't necessary to plan for it in detail", given that the next volcano might erupt in 100 years or 1,000 years' time.
He said research published in the Australian Journal of Earth Sciences had indicated that the Victorian risk was in decline. "If there's been an eruption, 40, 30, 20 or 5,000 years ago then there's no reason why there can't be another one - but it's a statistical thing," said Birch.
"Statistical thing"
There was a localised risk of volcanic eruption in these areas in the same sense that there was a risk of earthquake, which would involve evacuating people nearby, he said. But there'd "probably be more warning than you'd have for a bushfire," he added.
“While the risk of a significant volcanic eruption is considered remote, both state and Australian Government emergency agencies have well-tested plans in place to handle the impact of rapid-onset disasters,” commented Daniel Gleeson, an Australian Federal Government spokesperson in the Attorney General’s Department.
He said that in the event of an eruption, specialist organisations such as Geoscience Australia and the Bureau of Meteorology would be ready to provide essential information to the government and the public.
“The Australian community can be assured that this country is prepared for any emergency or disaster… with plans in place for response agencies and departments to be activated quickly and effectively.”
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